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Actual for You - When Managers Become Hamlets
Are you're tired of all the "systems" and work from home opportunities that require you to sell products, run pay per click advertising campaigns, operate websites or recruit new members then I have great news for you!I have finally discovered a program that will allow anyone to earn an incredible income from home - and you won't have to lift a single finger! All you need is a computer and Internet connection.Perhaps the best part of all is that you don't have to use any of your own money! The companies put up the money for the advertising. You simply process the orders and get paid a percentage of the profits.This program is called, "Share The Wealth" The concept being that by allowing you to participate in the profits without spending any of your money first you will be able to see if its profitable or not. You get to essentially try it for you buy it.When I say they do it all that's exactly what I mean. Your only job is to be to send them their share of the profits received from each order The rest is yours to keep.I know your next question. Why are they going to do this for someone like me? What gives here. You was born at night but not last night. Everyone and his grandmother would want to get in it.And you're right. They would...if they knew about it! Remember 50% of success is being in the right place, at the right time. Usually the average person hears about programs like this after it has been out there for many months. By that time its very difficult to make any serious money due to overexposure.The Philosophy behind it being if they make a limited number of people financially successful without requiring any upfront investment they will in turn tell others who after seeing your success will gladly pay money to get in.The gentleman who created this program first got the idea while attending a seminar. The light bulb immedia
Thus, the inferior method may produce greater results if the inferior one has greater support. One of the most important considerations in decision making, then, is the people factor. Always consider a decision in light of the people implementation.
A decision that may be technologically brilliant but that is sociologically stupid will not work. Only decisions that are implemented, and implemented with thoroughness (and preferably enthusiasm) will work the way they are intended to.
Approaches to Decision Making
1. Authoritarian. The manager makes the decision based on the knowledge he can gather. He then must explain the decision to the group and gain their acceptance of it.
2. Group. The group shares ideas and analyses, and agrees upon a decision to implement. Studies show that the group often has values, feelings, and reactions quite different from those the manager supposes they have. No one knows the group and its tastes and preferences as well as the group itself. There are two types of group decision making sessions. First is free discussion in which the problem is simply put on the table for the group to talk about.
The other kind of group decision making is developmental discussion or structured discussion. Here the problem is broken down into steps, smaller parts with specific goals. Developmental discussion (1) insures systematic coverage of a topic and (2) insures that all members of the group are talking about the same aspect of the problem at the same time.
Some Decision Making Strategies
1. Optimizing. This is the strategy of choosing the best possible solution to the problem, discovering as many alternatives as possible and choosing the very best. How thoroughly optimizing can be done is dependent on
1. Importance of the problem
Contract electronics manufacturing service or EMS providers typically work with customers in a wide range of industries with differing requirements for inventory control, testing, product packaging, and product support. In some applications, the EMS provider simply assembles the printed circuit boards and then ships the boards to the customer. In other applications, the EMS provider will assemble the printed circuit board, load firmware/software into memory, test the board, and then assemble the board and associated cables, enclosures, and documentation into a finished product that is shipped to the customer. Some customers will provide all of the materials, raw boards and electronic components, required for a job and the EMS provider assemblies the printed circuit boards, performs any required testing, and ships the finished boards to the customer. This is generally considered as inventory provided on a consignment basis where the EMS provider basically provides labor and expertise only. Some customers provide some portion on the materials, such as specialty or high cost integrated circuits, proprietary parts such as transformers or coils, raw printed circuit boards, etc. and rely on the EMS provider to purchase the remainder of the components needed to assemble the boards. Most EMS providers prefer to use their own purchasing power, their extensive contacts, and their existing parts inventory where applicable to provide all of the required materials for a customer's particular project. This method is generally considered as inventory provided on a turn-key basis.But before any of this can happen, the EMS provider must provide an assembled board quote or pricing estimate to the customer for the project. In addition to the quantity commitments, production release quantity and annual usage quantity, this pricing process also requires a detailed bill of material from the customer along wit
What is Decision Making?
1. Making a decision implies that there are alternative choices to be considered, and in such a case we want, not only to identify as many of these alternatives as possible but to choose the one that best fits with our goals, desires, lifestyle, values, and so on.
2. It should be noted here that uncertainty is reduced rather than eliminated. Very few decisions are made with absolute certainty because complete knowledge about all the alternatives is seldom possible. Thus, every decision involves a certain amount of risk.
Kinds of Decisions
There are several basic kinds of decisions.
1. Decisions whether. This is the yes/no, either/or decision that must be made before we proceed with the selection of an alternative. Should I buy a new TV? Should I travel this summer? Decisions whether are made by weighing reasons pro and con. It is important to be aware of having made a decision whether, since too often we assume that decision making begins with the identification of alternatives, assuming that the decision to choose one has already been made.
2. Decisions which. These decisions involve a choice of one or more alternatives from among a set of possibilities, the choice being based on how well each alternative measures up to a set of predefined criteria.
3. Contingent decisions. Most people carry around a set of already made, contingent decisions, just waiting for the right conditions or opportunity to arise. Time, energy, price, availability, opportunity, encouragement--all these factors can figure into the necessary conditions that need to be met before we can act on our decision.
Decision whether ... select criteria ... identify alternatives ... make choice
The Components of Decision Making
The Decision Environment
Every decision is made within a decision environment, which is defined as the collection of information, alternatives, values, and preferences available at the time of the decision. An ideal decision environment would include all possible information, all of it accurate, and every possible alternative. However, both information and alternatives are constrained because time and effort to gain information or identify alternatives are limited. The major challenge of decision making is uncertainty, and a major goal of decision analysis is to reduce uncertainty. We can almost never have all information needed to make a decision with certainty, so most decisions involve an undeniable amount of risk.
Delaying a decision as long as reasonably possible, then, provides three benefits:
1. The decision environment will be larger, providing more information. There is also time for more thoughtful and extended analysis.
2. New alternatives might be recognized or created.
3. The decision maker's preferences might change. With further thought, wisdom, maturity.
The Effects of Quantity on Decision Making
Many decision makers have a tendency to seek more information than required to make a good decision. When too much information is sought and obtained, one or more of several problems can arise. (1) A delay in the decision occurs because of the time required to obtain and process the extra information. This delay could impair the effectiveness of the decision or solution. (2) Information overload will occur. In this state, so much information is available that decision-making ability actually declines because the information in its entirety can no longer be managed or assessed appropriately. A major problem caused by information overload is forgetfulness. When too much information is taken into memory, especially in a short period of time, some of the information (often that received early on) will be pushed out.
The example is sometimes given of the man who spent the day at an information-heavy seminar. At the end of the day, he was not only unable to remember the first half of the seminar but he had also forgotten where he parked his car that morning.
(3) Selective use of the information will occur. That is, the decision maker will choose from among all the information available only those facts which support a preconceived solution or position. (4) Mental fatigue occurs, which results in slower work or poor quality work.
The quantity of information that can be processed by the human mind is limited. Unless information is consciously selected, processing will be biased toward the first part of the information received. After that, the mind tires and begins to ignore subsequent information or forget earlier information.
Decision Streams
A common misconception about decision making is that decisions are made in isolation from each other: you gather information, explore alternatives, and make a choice, without regard to anything that has gone before. The fact is, decisions are made in a context of other decisions. The typical metaphor used to explain this is that of a stream. There is a stream of decisions surrounding a given decision, many decisions made earlier have led up to this decision and made it both possible and limited. Many other decisions will follow from it.
As example, when you enter a store to buy a VCD or TV, you are faced with the preselected alternatives stocked by the store. There may be 200 models available in the universe of models, but you will be choosing from, say, only a dozen. In this case, your decision has been constrained by the decisions made by others about which models to carry.
It is important to realize that every decision you make affects the decision stream and the collections of alternatives available to you both immediately and in the future. In other words, decisions have far reaching consequences.
Acceptance. Those who must implement the decision or who will be affected by it must accept it both intellectually and emotionally. Acceptance is a critical factor because it occasionally conflicts with one of the quality criteria. In such cases, the best thing to do may be to choose a lesser quality solution that has greater acceptance.
For example, when cake mixes first were put on the market, manufacturers put everything into the mix--the highest quality and most efficient solution. Only water had to be added. However, the mixes didn't sell well--they weren't accepted. After investigation, the makers discovered that women didn't like the mixes because using the mixes made them feel guilty: they weren't good wives because they were taking a shortcut to making a cake. The solution was to take the egg and sometimes the milk out of the mix so that the women would have something to do to "make" the cake other than just adding water. Now they had to add egg and perhaps milk, making them feel more useful. The need to feel useful and a contributor is one of the most basic of human needs. Thus, while the new solution was less efficient in theoretical terms, it was much more acceptable. Cake mixes with the new formula became quite popular.
Thus, the inferior method may produce greater results if the inferior one has greater support. One of the most important considerations in decision making, then, is the people factor. Always consider a decision in light of the people implementation.
A decision that may be technologically brilliant but that is sociologically stupid will not work. Only decisions that are implemented, and implemented with thoroughness (and preferably enthusiasm) will work the way they are intended to.
Approaches to Decision Making
1. Authoritarian. The manager makes the decision based on the knowledge he can gather. He then must explain the decision to the group and gain their acceptance of it.
2. Group. The group shares ideas and analyses, and agrees upon a decision to implement. Studies show that the group often has values, feelings, and reactions quite different from those the manager supposes they have. No one knows the group and its tastes and preferences as well as the group itself. There are two types of group decision making sessions. First is free discussion in which the problem is simply put on the table for the group to talk about.
The other kind of group decision making is developmental discussion or structured discussion. Here the problem is broken down into steps, smaller parts with specific goals. Developmental discussion (1) insures systematic coverage of a topic and (2) insures that all members of the group are talking about the same aspect of the problem at the same time.
Some Decision Making Strategies
1. Optimizing. This is the strategy of choosing the best possible solution to the problem, discovering as many alternatives as possible and choosing the very best. How thoroughly optimizing can be done is dependent on
1. Importance of the problem
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The subject matter surrounding an employer’s right to information vs. an employee’s right to privacy seems to be an ever proliferating area of complexity and contention. The text that follows will not delve into a discussion on the legalities of the issue, but rather my opinions based upon personal experience and what I believe to be a common sense approach.During my career I have been lucky enough to be both employer and employee, as well as to serve as a professional to both, and regardless of which role I have played my opinion has never wavered with regard to the subject matter at hand. It is this author’s opinion that employment is a privilege and not a right. A job is something an employee has to compete for to secure, as well as perform up to certain expectations to retain. It is effort expended on the employee’s behalf in return for remuneration and the privilege of remaining employed. A job is not something to be viewed as a right of entitlement.So why does an employer need to have so much access to the personal information of its employees? The answer is really quite simple…An employee is a direct representative of the company and his/her actions (either on, or in some cases, off the job) are a direct reflection on the employer’s brand, reputation and image in the marketplace. Companies are in reality most frequently judged upon the quality, integrity and character of their employees.Unless the employer crosses a clear legal boundary all is fair in the employer’s pursuit of corporate protection. In my book drug tests, recording phone conversations, monitoring e-mail, web browsing habits and information stored on company computers are perfectly acceptable measures for an employer to take in safeguarding the reputation and security of the enterprise.All reputable companies have employee handbooks, job descriptions and/or employment agreements that the employe
2. Decisions which. These decisions involve a choice of one or more alternatives from among a set of possibilities, the choice being based on how well each alternative measures up to a set of predefined criteria.
3. Contingent decisions. Most people carry around a set of already made, contingent decisions, just waiting for the right conditions or opportunity to arise. Time, energy, price, availability, opportunity, encouragement--all these factors can figure into the necessary conditions that need to be met before we can act on our decision.
Decision whether ... select criteria ... identify alternatives ... make choice
The Components of Decision Making
The Decision Environment
Every decision is made within a decision environment, which is defined as the collection of information, alternatives, values, and preferences available at the time of the decision. An ideal decision environment would include all possible information, all of it accurate, and every possible alternative. However, both information and alternatives are constrained because time and effort to gain information or identify alternatives are limited. The major challenge of decision making is uncertainty, and a major goal of decision analysis is to reduce uncertainty. We can almost never have all information needed to make a decision with certainty, so most decisions involve an undeniable amount of risk.
Delaying a decision as long as reasonably possible, then, provides three benefits:
1. The decision environment will be larger, providing more information. There is also time for more thoughtful and extended analysis.
2. New alternatives might be recognized or created.
3. The decision maker's preferences might change. With further thought, wisdom, maturity.
The Effects of Quantity on Decision Making
Many decision makers have a tendency to seek more information than required to make a good decision. When too much information is sought and obtained, one or more of several problems can arise. (1) A delay in the decision occurs because of the time required to obtain and process the extra information. This delay could impair the effectiveness of the decision or solution. (2) Information overload will occur. In this state, so much information is available that decision-making ability actually declines because the information in its entirety can no longer be managed or assessed appropriately. A major problem caused by information overload is forgetfulness. When too much information is taken into memory, especially in a short period of time, some of the information (often that received early on) will be pushed out.
The example is sometimes given of the man who spent the day at an information-heavy seminar. At the end of the day, he was not only unable to remember the first half of the seminar but he had also forgotten where he parked his car that morning.
(3) Selective use of the information will occur. That is, the decision maker will choose from among all the information available only those facts which support a preconceived solution or position. (4) Mental fatigue occurs, which results in slower work or poor quality work.
The quantity of information that can be processed by the human mind is limited. Unless information is consciously selected, processing will be biased toward the first part of the information received. After that, the mind tires and begins to ignore subsequent information or forget earlier information.
Decision Streams
A common misconception about decision making is that decisions are made in isolation from each other: you gather information, explore alternatives, and make a choice, without regard to anything that has gone before. The fact is, decisions are made in a context of other decisions. The typical metaphor used to explain this is that of a stream. There is a stream of decisions surrounding a given decision, many decisions made earlier have led up to this decision and made it both possible and limited. Many other decisions will follow from it.
As example, when you enter a store to buy a VCD or TV, you are faced with the preselected alternatives stocked by the store. There may be 200 models available in the universe of models, but you will be choosing from, say, only a dozen. In this case, your decision has been constrained by the decisions made by others about which models to carry.
It is important to realize that every decision you make affects the decision stream and the collections of alternatives available to you both immediately and in the future. In other words, decisions have far reaching consequences.
Acceptance. Those who must implement the decision or who will be affected by it must accept it both intellectually and emotionally. Acceptance is a critical factor because it occasionally conflicts with one of the quality criteria. In such cases, the best thing to do may be to choose a lesser quality solution that has greater acceptance.
For example, when cake mixes first were put on the market, manufacturers put everything into the mix--the highest quality and most efficient solution. Only water had to be added. However, the mixes didn't sell well--they weren't accepted. After investigation, the makers discovered that women didn't like the mixes because using the mixes made them feel guilty: they weren't good wives because they were taking a shortcut to making a cake. The solution was to take the egg and sometimes the milk out of the mix so that the women would have something to do to "make" the cake other than just adding water. Now they had to add egg and perhaps milk, making them feel more useful. The need to feel useful and a contributor is one of the most basic of human needs. Thus, while the new solution was less efficient in theoretical terms, it was much more acceptable. Cake mixes with the new formula became quite popular.
Thus, the inferior method may produce greater results if the inferior one has greater support. One of the most important considerations in decision making, then, is the people factor. Always consider a decision in light of the people implementation.
A decision that may be technologically brilliant but that is sociologically stupid will not work. Only decisions that are implemented, and implemented with thoroughness (and preferably enthusiasm) will work the way they are intended to.
Approaches to Decision Making
1. Authoritarian. The manager makes the decision based on the knowledge he can gather. He then must explain the decision to the group and gain their acceptance of it.
2. Group. The group shares ideas and analyses, and agrees upon a decision to implement. Studies show that the group often has values, feelings, and reactions quite different from those the manager supposes they have. No one knows the group and its tastes and preferences as well as the group itself. There are two types of group decision making sessions. First is free discussion in which the problem is simply put on the table for the group to talk about.
The other kind of group decision making is developmental discussion or structured discussion. Here the problem is broken down into steps, smaller parts with specific goals. Developmental discussion (1) insures systematic coverage of a topic and (2) insures that all members of the group are talking about the same aspect of the problem at the same time.
Some Decision Making Strategies
1. Optimizing. This is the strategy of choosing the best possible solution to the problem, discovering as many alternatives as possible and choosing the very best. How thoroughly optimizing can be done is dependent on
1. Importance of the problem
If you require reaching up and over hindrances, you'll probably require a boom lift, as other types of lifts shift mainly directly up and down.Boom lifts come in two distinctive varieties. Telescopic boom lifts have extendable arms that can attain up to 120' at approximately any angle. They're frequently used in construction, where their long reach lets employees get contact to upper stories of buildings. For the maximum and longest reach, these are your preeminent option.Another type of boom lift is the trailer-mounted boom lift. These battery-powered lifts are towed to work locations behind other vehicles, instead of being able to move on their own. They can reach heights of 35' to 50'.Boom lifts are used for industrial preservation, administration and educational facility maintenance. Articulated boom lifts are used for getting up and over machinery, and other obstacle accumulated on floors and for reaching other eminent position not easily approached by a telescope boom lifts.Many distributor of boom lifts effort strongly with our construction clients to continue a outstanding purchasing experience, they also help you choose the right JLG Boom Lift, delivering your JLG equipment on-time, and serving you service your new or used JLG work platforms to make sure a longer equipment live. JLG boom lifts having a platform capacity of up to 1,000 lbs) on the Model.Boom lifts are designed to reduce defensive protection and optimize machine uptime. Better fuel efficiency, a swing-out locomotive tray.S & H Equipment one of the most experienced teams in the powered access industry, have invested ?3.5min boosting their fleet of machines as the company continues to grow apace. An additional 200 scissor and boom lifts have been purchased in order t
The example is sometimes given of the man who spent the day at an information-heavy seminar. At the end of the day, he was not only unable to remember the first half of the seminar but he had also forgotten where he parked his car that morning.
(3) Selective use of the information will occur. That is, the decision maker will choose from among all the information available only those facts which support a preconceived solution or position. (4) Mental fatigue occurs, which results in slower work or poor quality work.
The quantity of information that can be processed by the human mind is limited. Unless information is consciously selected, processing will be biased toward the first part of the information received. After that, the mind tires and begins to ignore subsequent information or forget earlier information.
Decision Streams
A common misconception about decision making is that decisions are made in isolation from each other: you gather information, explore alternatives, and make a choice, without regard to anything that has gone before. The fact is, decisions are made in a context of other decisions. The typical metaphor used to explain this is that of a stream. There is a stream of decisions surrounding a given decision, many decisions made earlier have led up to this decision and made it both possible and limited. Many other decisions will follow from it.
As example, when you enter a store to buy a VCD or TV, you are faced with the preselected alternatives stocked by the store. There may be 200 models available in the universe of models, but you will be choosing from, say, only a dozen. In this case, your decision has been constrained by the decisions made by others about which models to carry.
It is important to realize that every decision you make affects the decision stream and the collections of alternatives available to you both immediately and in the future. In other words, decisions have far reaching consequences.
Acceptance. Those who must implement the decision or who will be affected by it must accept it both intellectually and emotionally. Acceptance is a critical factor because it occasionally conflicts with one of the quality criteria. In such cases, the best thing to do may be to choose a lesser quality solution that has greater acceptance.
For example, when cake mixes first were put on the market, manufacturers put everything into the mix--the highest quality and most efficient solution. Only water had to be added. However, the mixes didn't sell well--they weren't accepted. After investigation, the makers discovered that women didn't like the mixes because using the mixes made them feel guilty: they weren't good wives because they were taking a shortcut to making a cake. The solution was to take the egg and sometimes the milk out of the mix so that the women would have something to do to "make" the cake other than just adding water. Now they had to add egg and perhaps milk, making them feel more useful. The need to feel useful and a contributor is one of the most basic of human needs. Thus, while the new solution was less efficient in theoretical terms, it was much more acceptable. Cake mixes with the new formula became quite popular.
Thus, the inferior method may produce greater results if the inferior one has greater support. One of the most important considerations in decision making, then, is the people factor. Always consider a decision in light of the people implementation.
A decision that may be technologically brilliant but that is sociologically stupid will not work. Only decisions that are implemented, and implemented with thoroughness (and preferably enthusiasm) will work the way they are intended to.
Approaches to Decision Making
1. Authoritarian. The manager makes the decision based on the knowledge he can gather. He then must explain the decision to the group and gain their acceptance of it.
2. Group. The group shares ideas and analyses, and agrees upon a decision to implement. Studies show that the group often has values, feelings, and reactions quite different from those the manager supposes they have. No one knows the group and its tastes and preferences as well as the group itself. There are two types of group decision making sessions. First is free discussion in which the problem is simply put on the table for the group to talk about.
The other kind of group decision making is developmental discussion or structured discussion. Here the problem is broken down into steps, smaller parts with specific goals. Developmental discussion (1) insures systematic coverage of a topic and (2) insures that all members of the group are talking about the same aspect of the problem at the same time.
Some Decision Making Strategies
1. Optimizing. This is the strategy of choosing the best possible solution to the problem, discovering as many alternatives as possible and choosing the very best. How thoroughly optimizing can be done is dependent on
1. Importance of the problem
It works:Because the Advertising Agencies tell you it works without producing one iota of evidence to substantiate their claims as to the exclusive increase in sales that one advertising campaign has produced!It works because we live in an over informed society, and the agencies are working very hard to increase the quantity (but not quality) of clutterIt works because the customer has become immune to advertising, so Advertising Agencies are attempting to cut through the clutter with brilliant creative work.Advertising works – especially now that it is moving onto the Internet!Advertising works because advertising agencies pay scant attention (if any) to the actual process of communication, and concentrate heavily on creativity and media buying.Advertising works because the days are numbered for TV ads dominance…but they don't know what to replace it with!Advertising works because the correct model of communication is totally ignored by the advertising industry whilst they cling onto the reach frequency model beloved by the advertising industry but which has no relevance to the actual process of communication.Advertising works to waste your money. Study the annual expenditure of advertising in America, Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Japan and Australia. Apply the statement "50% of my advertising expenditure is wasted but I don't know which fifty percent" the costly ineffectiveness of advertising is huge, to say the least. Now factor in the fact that there has never been any true accountability.Then consider that this wastefulness has been going on since the end of the Second World War, now that's wastefulness!Advertising is clinging to a world that existed ten years ago as if it were trying not to notice it’s vanished. Advertising has to modernise and change. Its effectiveness will regenerate itself because the inform
As example, when you enter a store to buy a VCD or TV, you are faced with the preselected alternatives stocked by the store. There may be 200 models available in the universe of models, but you will be choosing from, say, only a dozen. In this case, your decision has been constrained by the decisions made by others about which models to carry.
It is important to realize that every decision you make affects the decision stream and the collections of alternatives available to you both immediately and in the future. In other words, decisions have far reaching consequences.
Acceptance. Those who must implement the decision or who will be affected by it must accept it both intellectually and emotionally. Acceptance is a critical factor because it occasionally conflicts with one of the quality criteria. In such cases, the best thing to do may be to choose a lesser quality solution that has greater acceptance.
For example, when cake mixes first were put on the market, manufacturers put everything into the mix--the highest quality and most efficient solution. Only water had to be added. However, the mixes didn't sell well--they weren't accepted. After investigation, the makers discovered that women didn't like the mixes because using the mixes made them feel guilty: they weren't good wives because they were taking a shortcut to making a cake. The solution was to take the egg and sometimes the milk out of the mix so that the women would have something to do to "make" the cake other than just adding water. Now they had to add egg and perhaps milk, making them feel more useful. The need to feel useful and a contributor is one of the most basic of human needs. Thus, while the new solution was less efficient in theoretical terms, it was much more acceptable. Cake mixes with the new formula became quite popular.
Thus, the inferior method may produce greater results if the inferior one has greater support. One of the most important considerations in decision making, then, is the people factor. Always consider a decision in light of the people implementation.
A decision that may be technologically brilliant but that is sociologically stupid will not work. Only decisions that are implemented, and implemented with thoroughness (and preferably enthusiasm) will work the way they are intended to.
Approaches to Decision Making
1. Authoritarian. The manager makes the decision based on the knowledge he can gather. He then must explain the decision to the group and gain their acceptance of it.
2. Group. The group shares ideas and analyses, and agrees upon a decision to implement. Studies show that the group often has values, feelings, and reactions quite different from those the manager supposes they have. No one knows the group and its tastes and preferences as well as the group itself. There are two types of group decision making sessions. First is free discussion in which the problem is simply put on the table for the group to talk about.
The other kind of group decision making is developmental discussion or structured discussion. Here the problem is broken down into steps, smaller parts with specific goals. Developmental discussion (1) insures systematic coverage of a topic and (2) insures that all members of the group are talking about the same aspect of the problem at the same time.
Some Decision Making Strategies
1. Optimizing. This is the strategy of choosing the best possible solution to the problem, discovering as many alternatives as possible and choosing the very best. How thoroughly optimizing can be done is dependent on
1. Importance of the problem
Most businesses want to be able to borrow money when they need it, without the owners having to personal guarantee the loans. This means less risk to the owners. Hoping to get a business loan without a personal guarantee is one thing and actually obtaining it is quit another.Too many business owners come to us last minute trying to obtain additional financing. We are constantly approached by business owners asking how to obtain business financing, and more importantly, how to obtain it without a personal guarantee! We watch as successful businesses are turned down for financing because they haven’t taken the time to set up the business credit properly.More vital is after the business credit is set up, who should the business contact to get financing? Let me also say one thing, there is a common misconception, good business credit will overcome bad personal credit. In most cases, this is simply not true. It is important to have good personal credit and good business credit.Let's face it, banks are not donation centers! They will be looking at both the business credit and the personal credit of the owners of the business. Just because a business owner has great business credit doesn’t mean that the bank will completely ignore the negative personal credit.Part of building a good, solid business is taking care of both business credit and personal credit. Although, building business credit is totally different than building personal credit. With business credit you will need to make sure that you have a proper business entity set up. You will need to make sure it is a real business. By that I mean it should have the proper licensing and permits to operate in your local jurisdiction. You will also need to have a real address. Not a P.O. Box! You will need to set up the phone number properly so that the business credit bureaus can verify that yo
Thus, the inferior method may produce greater results if the inferior one has greater support. One of the most important considerations in decision making, then, is the people factor. Always consider a decision in light of the people implementation.
A decision that may be technologically brilliant but that is sociologically stupid will not work. Only decisions that are implemented, and implemented with thoroughness (and preferably enthusiasm) will work the way they are intended to.
Approaches to Decision Making
1. Authoritarian. The manager makes the decision based on the knowledge he can gather. He then must explain the decision to the group and gain their acceptance of it.
2. Group. The group shares ideas and analyses, and agrees upon a decision to implement. Studies show that the group often has values, feelings, and reactions quite different from those the manager supposes they have. No one knows the group and its tastes and preferences as well as the group itself. There are two types of group decision making sessions. First is free discussion in which the problem is simply put on the table for the group to talk about.
The other kind of group decision making is developmental discussion or structured discussion. Here the problem is broken down into steps, smaller parts with specific goals. Developmental discussion (1) insures systematic coverage of a topic and (2) insures that all members of the group are talking about the same aspect of the problem at the same time.
Some Decision Making Strategies
1. Optimizing. This is the strategy of choosing the best possible solution to the problem, discovering as many alternatives as possible and choosing the very best. How thoroughly optimizing can be done is dependent on
1. Importance of the problem
2. Time available for solving it
3. Cost involved with alternative solutions
4. Availability of resources, knowledge
5. Personal psychology & values
Note that the collection of complete information and the consideration of all alternatives is seldom possible for most major decisions, so that limitations must be placed on alternatives.
2. Satisficing. In this strategy, the first satisfactory alternative is chosen rather than the best alternative. If you are very hungry, you might choose to stop at the first decent looking restaurant in the next town rather than attempting to choose the best restaurant from among all (the optimizing strategy). The word satisficing was coined by combining satisfactory and sufficient. For many small decisions, such as where to park, what to drink, which pen to use, which tie to wear, and so on, the satisficing strategy is perfect.
3. Maximax. This stands for "maximize the maximums." This strategy focuses on evaluating and then choosing the alternatives based on their maximum possible payoff. This is sometimes described as the strategy of the optimist, because favorable outcomes and high potentials are the areas of concern. It is a good strategy for use when risk taking is most acceptable, when the go-for-broke philosophy is reigning freely.
4. Maximin. This stands for "maximize the minimums." In this strategy, that of the pessimist, the worst possible outcome of each decision is considered and the decision with the highest minimum is chosen. The Maximin orientation is good when the consequences of a failed decision are particularly harmful or undesirable. Maximin concentrates on the salvage value of a decision, or of the guaranteed return of the decision. It's the philosophy behind the saying, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush."
Decision Making Procedure:
1.Identify the decision to be made together with the goals it should achieve.
2.Get the facts.
3.Develop alternatives.
4.Rate each alternative.
5.Rate the risk of each alternative.
6.Make the decision.
Risk Taking Metrics:
1. Only the risk takers are truly free. All decisions of consequence involve risk. Without taking risks, you cannot grow or improve or even live.
2.There is really no such thing as permanent security in anything on earth. Not taking risks is really not more secure than taking them, for your present state can always be changed without action on your part.
3.You are supposed to be afraid when you risk. Admit your fears--of loss, of rejection, of failure.
4. Risking normally involves a degree of separation anxiety
5.Decide whether the risk is necessary or desirable. Spend some careful thought before acting, so that you will not end up taking unnecessary risks.
6. Risk for the right reasons and when you are calm and thoughtful. Don't take a risk because you are angry, hurt, depressed, desperate, or frightened. Don't take risks just to get revenge or to harm someone else. Don't risk when you are incapable of rational thought.
3. Have a goal. When you take a risk, have a clear purpose in mind so that you will know, after the fact, whether you succeeded or not. What will taking the risk accomplish?
4. Determine the possible loss as well as the gain. That is, know exactly what the consequences of failure will be. Unless you know pretty accurately what both loss and gain will be, you do not understand the risk. There is a tendency either to underestimate or to overestimate the consequences of risk. Underestimation can result in surprising damage, cost, setbacks, pain, whatever. But overestimation is just as problematic, It's a good idea in fact to list all the good expected effects of a successful outcome and all the bad expected effects of an unsuccessful outcome.
5. Try to make an accurate estimate about the probability of each case. Is the probability of success one in two, one in ten, one in a hundred, one in a million? This can be sometimes difficult to do, but usually you can guess the probability within an order of magnitude.
6. When possible, take one risk at a time. Divide your actions or goals wherever possible so that you are not combining risks unless absolutely necessary. Simultaneous risking increases anxiety, creates confusion, and makes failure analysis very difficult.
7. Use imaging or role playing to work through the various possibilities, successes and failures, so that you will be mentally prepared for any outcome. Think about what can go right and what can go wrong and how you will respond to or adjust to each possibility.
8. Use a plan. Set up a timetable with a list of steps to take. Use the plan as a guideline, but be flexible.
9. Act decisively. When you have evaluated the risk and decided that it's worth it, act. Go for it. Don't hesitate at the threshold or halfway through. Once you get going, be courageous. Grit your teeth and move forward. Don't procrastinate and don't act half heartedly.
10. Don't expect complete success. You may get it, of course, but chances are the result of your risk will not be exactly what you had imagined and there will be more a degree of success than absolute success or failure. Decision Making
The key take-away is that all of us, when making a decision, need to carefully think through what we absolutely need to know in order to make a good decision, rather than delaying decision making and leaning on the crutch of more time to gather………There where managers become Hamlets
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